Every day, thousands of protesters gather near South Korea’s top court, which has fortified its walls with razor wire as its eight justices prepare a ruling that could shape the future of the country’s democracy. Many shout for the court to remove Yoon Suk Yeol, the country’s president, accusing him of “insurrection.” Nearby, a rival group chants for his reinstatement, calling his impeachment by Parliament “fraudulent.”
Never have the jitters run so high in South Korea before a court ruling as they do now, while the country waits impatiently for its Constitutional Court to decide whether to remove or reinstate Mr. Yoon. The court’s ruling could help bring an end to the months of political turmoil Mr. Yoon unleashed on Dec. 3 with his failed attempt to place his country under martial law.
Or it could push the country into a deeper political crisis.
South Koreans have grown weary of the prolonged political uncertainty and want the court to decide soon. But it has kept them on edge for weeks, giving no hint when its justices will deliver probably the most consequential ruling of their careers.
Police are preparing for the worst, regardless of how the decision goes. Schools, street vendors and a former royal palace in the neighborhood of the Constitutional Court will close on the day of ruling. The police called for the removal of rocks, empty bottles, trash bins — anything that could be a weapon — from the streets. About 14,000 police officers are ready to deploy. Drones have been banned from flying over the courthouse, and all 86,000 privately owned guns in the country must be kept locked in police stations.
As the deliberations dragged on, conspiracy theories abounded and speculation flourished. Some suggested that the court was irreparably split. (The votes of at least six of the eight justices are needed to remove Mr. Yoon. Otherwise, he will be reinstated.) Others said it was just taking time to make its historic ruling watertight.
“The country is at a crossroads,” said Cho Gab-je, a prominent South Korean journalist and publisher who has covered the nation’s political evolution since 1971. “If the court reinstalls Yoon in office despite what he did, it will give future leaders of the country a license to rule by martial law. South Korea will become a banana republic.”
Mr. Yoon’s martial law lasted only six hours but provoked fury among many South Koreans. The National Assembly impeached him on Dec. 14, suspending him from office. If Mr. Yoon is removed, South Korea will elect a new president within 60 days.
Polls in recent weeks showed that South Koreans preferred Mr. Yoon’s ouster to his reinstatement roughly 3 to 2. But in a deeply divided nation, Parliament’s decision to impeach him has also galvanized the political right, fueling their fear and hatred of their progressive political opposition.
No matter what it decides, the court will anger a large portion of the society. People on both sides have shaved their heads or gone on hunger strike to press their demands.
“If it endorses Yoon’s impeachment, there will be some commotion, but the political landscape will quickly shift toward a presidential election,” said Shang E. Ha, a professor of political science at Sogang University in Seoul. “But if he returns to office, even those who have been waiting patiently for a ruling will take to the streets. We will see riots.”
In a typical anti-Yoon rally, participants hold signs that call him “the ringleader of insurrection” and chant for his “immediate ouster.”
But far-right Christian pastors and lawmakers who supported Mr. Yoon threatened to “shatter” the court should it decide to remove him. In January, scores of Yoon supporters vandalized a Seoul district courthouse after a judge there issued a warrant to arrest him on an insurrection charge. Two supporters of Mr. Yoon died after setting themselves on fire in protest of his impeachment.
The police also assigned bodyguards to Lee Jae-myung, the main opposition leader, after his party reported anonymous assassination threats. Officers have escorted the eight justices on their commute to and from the court.
“I urge the people to respect and accept whatever the court decides,” said Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok, the country’s acting president, while expressing concern over the potential for violent clashes.
When the court ruled to remove another impeached conservative leader, President Park Geun-hye, in 2017, there were no violent deaths in the resulting protests, though four people rallying in her support died, either from heart failure or being hit by a falling object.
In an increasingly polarized era, Mr. Yoon’s impeachment trial is even more emotionally charged.
In 2017, rival political parties agreed weeks before the court’s ruling that they would honor it. Ms. Park waited in silence for the ruling, while her party distanced itself from the leader disgraced for corruption and abuse of power.
Mr. Yoon, who also faces a criminal charge of insurrection, has showed no intention of going quietly. His People Power Party and the country’s mostly older and churchgoing right-wing voters have rallied behind him.
He has defended his declaration of martial law as an effort to save his country from the “dictatorship” of the opposition-controlled National Assembly and “anti-state forces.”
But the political instability Mr. Yoon set off has left his country without an elected leader at its helm at a time when North Korea is escalating its nuclear threat and strengthening military ties with Russia. Although South Korea is one of America’s key allies, its leader has yet to meet President Donald J. Trump while leaders of other nations, including Japan, have.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has decided to skip South Korea in his upcoming trip to the Indo-Pacific region while the political limbo remains. In February, the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index 2024 downgraded South Korea from a “full” to “flawed democracy.”
In his last argument at the Constitutional Court last month, Mr. Yoon said that if allowed to resume the presidency, he would leave domestic affairs to the prime minister and focus on diplomacy. But Mr. Lee, the opposition leader, said Mr. Yoon has already done enough damage to the country’s global image.
“We can overcome the current crisis only when we restore normal leadership,” he said.
