Local elections taking place in England on Thursday are the first major test of the political climate since Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his Labour Party swept to power in a landslide victory last year.
A lot has changed since then.
With the economy flatlining and the government slumping in opinion polls, Reform U.K., the right-wing populist party led by Nigel Farage, is expected to capitalize on voter frustration. Mr. Farage, a longtime campaigner for Brexit and a vocal ally of President Trump, will discover how effectively Reform can convert its opinion poll surge into votes.
While Mr. Starmer has suffered setbacks, the main opposition Conservative Party is struggling, too. Its leader, Kemi Badenoch, has failed to recover ground since her party was ejected from power.
That has left a gap for other smaller parties, too, including the centrist Liberal Democrats and the Greens.
Who’s voting and for what?
There are no elections in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland and the voting is only in parts of England. Mr. Starmer is reorganizing local government, and many municipal councils canceled elections because they expect to be replaced.
But voters will elect more than 1,600 council members in 24 of England’s municipalities, as well as six regional mayors: in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough; Doncaster; North Tyneside; the West of England; Hull and East Yorkshire; and Greater Lincolnshire.
There’s also a special election to replace a Labour lawmaker, Mike Amesbury, who resigned from the national Parliament after punching a voter. That contest is in Runcorn and Helsby, near Liverpool in northwestern England.
Confusing? Definitely. Adding to the unpredictability, turnout at British municipal and regional elections tends to be modest. Often, about a third or less of eligible voters take part.
When are results expected?
The special election result is expected at around 3 a.m. Friday, and four mayors’ races should be done between 2 a.m. and 5 a.m.
Results in many municipal elections are expected around lunchtime Friday, with more through the afternoon and into the early evening.
Which parties are braced for a bad day?
In a nutshell, the main two: Labour and the Conservatives.
Britain’s municipal elections follow a four-year cycle. Unluckily for the Conservatives, this set of seats was last fought in early 2021, when voters rewarded Prime Minister Boris Johnson for distributing the coronavirus vaccine swiftly.
His Conservatives won almost two thirds of the council seats available, leaving Ms. Badenoch with around 970 to defend. She says that will be “very difficult,” and analysts expect her party to lose hundreds.
Labour is braced for trouble, too. Amid a squeeze on living standards, the government has made unpopular decisions — especially for a center-left party — to curb spending and raise taxes. But it has fewer seats to defend: about 300.
Labour’s most high-profile challenge is the special election to replace Mr. Amesbury. In last year’s general election he won a big majority over a Reform U.K. rival, so losing would be a symbolic blow. But Mr. Farage has said he is targeting former Labour strongholds in the north and middle of England, and he seems confident of a victory for his candidate.
Who’s likely to do well?
Reform has the highest ambitions, hoping to win hundreds of council seats, as well as the special election and two or even three mayoralties.
The party, which is trying to professionalize its operations, is running candidates in most council contests and looks likely to make a considerable impact. Polling experts will benchmark its performance against a previous populist upsurge for the U.K. Independence Party, under Mr. Farage’s leadership in 2013, when it won a quarter of the vote in the local elections it contested.
The Liberal Democrats and the Greens also hope to advance. The Liberal Democrat leader, Ed Davey, says his aim is “to replace the Conservatives as the party of Middle England.” The Greens say they expect to win left-wing Labour voters disappointed with the government.
Robert Hayward, a Conservative member of the House of Lords and a polling expert, expects his party to lose 475 to 525 seats; Labour to tread water; the Liberal Democrats to gain 70 to 80 seats; and the Greens to gain up to 40. The big winner, he predicts, will be Reform with 400 to 450 gains.
What’s at stake?
If Reform do as well as expected, it will give them momentum but also their first taste of local power, testing their ability to govern.
But the pressure will be on the losers.
Labour is at no risk of losing power nationally — the next general election is years away. But if it performs badly, its lawmakers will start to fret. One focus of discontent could be the chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, whose austere policies have angered many voters and been criticized as suppressing economic growth.
The stakes look highest for Ms. Badenoch. She has only been in the job for six months, but if Reform polls well at the Conservatives’ expense, her critics in the party will be emboldened, including those who favor a pact with Mr. Farage — something she has so far rejected.
