President-elect Donald J. Trump said on Tuesday that “all hell will break out in the Middle East” if the hostages being held by Hamas are not released by Inauguration Day, repeating the threat four times during a wide-ranging news conference at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.
“If they’re not back by the time I get into office, all hell will break out in the Middle East,” he told reporters. “And it will not be good for Hamas, and it will not be good, frankly, for anyone. All hell will break out. I don’t have to say any more, but that’s what it is.”
Mr. Trump did not elaborate about what actions he might take if the hostages were not released by the time he enters office. And he declined to provide details about what he or his advisers are doing in the days leading up to the inauguration. Officials say about 100 hostages, including some Americans, who were seized on Oct. 7, 2023, remain captive in Gaza, though they believe many of them may have died in captivity.
“They should have never taken them,” Mr. Trump told reporters. “There should have never been the attack of Oct. 7. People forget that. But there was, and many people were killed.”
President Biden and his top national security aides have been working for months to try to negotiate the release of the remaining hostages. A deal has seemed imminent several times, only to fall apart after what Biden administration officials have said were rejections by Hamas negotiators. Israeli officials have also objected to some parts of proposed deals.
During his remarks, Mr. Trump suggested that his threats against Hamas would cause the group to relent. But experts on the Middle East struggled to understand the meaning of Mr. Trump’s threats.
“I don’t have clue, nor does he,” said Daniel C. Kurtzer, a U.S. ambassador to Israel during the George W. Bush administration.
Over the past 15 months, Israel’s military has nearly destroyed Hamas as an organized fighting force. It is unclear what more any escalated attacks by the incoming Trump administration, or Israel, could accomplish.
“I see no scenario where U.S. forces would be engaged; in any event, we don’t have a better idea than the Israelis what would force Hamas’s hand,” Mr. Kurtzer added. “Bluster is the worst form of policy.”
Aaron David Miller, a former State Department Middle East analyst and negotiator, said it was unclear what Mr. Trump could do if the hostages were not released by his deadline. And he questioned whether Mr. Trump could persuade Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel to take a deal.
“Trump will never be able to inflict more pain on Hamas and Palestinians than Israel already has,” Mr. Miller said. “He does have leverage over Netanyahu. But would he really use it to press Israel to agree to terms of a deal that might appear to benefit Hamas?”
At one point on Tuesday, the president-elect invited Steve Witkoff, whom he intends to appoint as his Middle East envoy, to speak to reporters. Mr. Witkoff said negotiators were “making a lot of progress,” but he did not give specifics.
“And I don’t want to say too much, because I think they’re doing a really good job,” Mr. Witkoff said. “I’m really hopeful that by the inaugural we’ll have some good things to announce on behalf of the president.”
Mr. Witkoff seemed to praise the Biden administration’s efforts, saying that “I actually believe that we’re working in tandem in a really good way.” But he also singled out Mr. Trump, saying it was the president-elect’s “stature” and “the red lines he’s put out there that’s driving this negotiation.”
Mr. Witkoff added that he was “leaving tomorrow” to go back to Doha, where delegations from Israel and Hamas have been negotiating through Qatari mediators. It was unclear what role, if any, Mr. Witkoff has been playing in those talks.
The reality of a change of administrations in the United States has complicated the last-ditch efforts by Mr. Biden and his advisers to get a deal to release the hostages. Families of those still being held have urged Biden and Trump officials to work together toward that goal.
Biden national security officials have said they are keeping their Trump counterparts fully informed about the negotiations. And members of both teams appear aligned behind the same goal: using the deadline of the inauguration to pressure Hamas to release everyone it is holding.
But if a release happens, the two administrations are likely to be starkly divided over who deserves praise.
The comments by Mr. Trump and Mr. Witkoff on Tuesday appeared to be devised at least in part so the president-elect can claim credit for a release if it happens just before he takes office. Mr. Witkoff told reporters that he thought Hamas was listening to Mr. Trump.
“He exhorts us to speak emphatically, and emphatically means you better get it — you better do this,” he said, adding that Hamas is not waiting for Mr. Trump to take office. “I think they heard him loud and clear. Better get done by the inaugural.”
Aides to Mr. Biden said that Mr. Witkoff and Brett McGurk, the chief negotiator for the Biden administration, had been talking regularly and that the discussions had been “constructive” and “appropriate.” Mr. McGurk has been the lead negotiator working to bring the two sides to an agreement.
That contact illustrates that “the Biden and Trump teams are far more coordinated than were, say, the Obama and Trump teams in late 2016 and early 2017,” said Natan Sachs, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
But Biden officials have argued that progress toward a deal is the result of months of painstaking discussions and Israel’s intense bombardment of Hamas.
Israel’s bombing of Gaza — which has come under intense scrutiny from many parts of the world because it has killed tens of thousands of people — severely damaged Hamas and left most of its leaders dead, including Yahya Sinwar and the masterminds of Oct. 7 attacks. Israel’s strikes against Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon have further isolated Hamas, Biden officials say.
They also note that the deal under consideration now with Hamas is based on an agreement that Mr. Biden offered to Israel and Hamas in May and that was later endorsed by the United Nations Security Council.
Mr. Miller said it would be unusual for a member of an incoming administration, like Mr. Witkoff, to be a direct part of sensitive negotiations with foreign countries.
“It’s fascinating that he said today ‘we’re making progress,’” Mr. Miller said, referring to Mr. Witkoff. “He’s inserted himself — as has Trump — in a negotiating process owned by the Biden administration and in which they have no official role. And of course they’re setting the stage to claim credit for the deal when it happens.”
