The recently leaked U.S. military documents aren’t just an embarrassment for American officials. They are also likely to have more tangible consequences: Ukraine is changing its battle plans against Russia in response to the leak, CNN reported yesterday.
Ukraine’s announcement is a sign of what makes this leak distinct from past ones, as my colleague David Sanger explained. Many of the leaks are weeks old, rather than months or years old, and describe secrets — involving Ukraine, Russia, South Korea, Israel and other countries — that are relevant to ongoing events.
The leak sent U.S. officials scrambling to contain the fallout. They are trying to reassure intelligence officials from other countries that further leaks are unlikely. And the Justice Department and the F.B.I. are investigating the source of the disclosure. “We don’t know what else might be out there,” John Kirby, the National Security Council spokesman, said.
It is not clear who leaked the documents or what their intentions were. The leak first appeared on gaming chat rooms and message boards, so it’s conceivable that a low-level official posted the documents online to settle an internet dispute, experts say. But it is also possible that Russia or another adversary acted with more serious, nefarious intentions.
Today’s newsletter will explain the leak and why U.S. officials worry about its consequences for diplomacy and the battlefield in Ukraine.
What leaked
The documents appear to come from multiple sources, including briefings for the Joint Chiefs of Staff and updates from the C.I.A. Some are marked “top secret.” Many focus on the war in Ukraine. The information falls into three categories:
Details about ongoing campaigns: The leaked documents describe Ukraine’s struggling air defenses and Western plans for Ukraine’s coming counteroffensive against Russia — details that could help Russia. For example, the leaked slides include maps of Ukrainian air defenses. Those defenses have deterred Russian planes from striking deep into Ukraine for much of the conflict, but the leak could help the Russian military bypass them.
The documents also disclose information that the U.S. had obtained from its infiltration of Russia’s military intelligence service. Russia could use that information to try to discover American sources and to lock down its own operations to stop leaks to the U.S.
Broader strategy: The documents also touch on more general assessments about the war in Ukraine, though little is new. For instance, they predict that neither Russia nor Ukraine will make progress this year in breaking the stalemate in Ukraine’s eastern region of Donbas. But U.S. officials openly share this view. “It gives you a sense of how some American officials are coming to the broader, public judgment that neither side is in a position to win in the coming year,” David said.
Chatter about allies: Some of the most sensitive material in the leaks is about American allies. The documents claim that Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, encouraged staff and civilians to participate in recent protests against the government. Israel’s government denied this claim. The documents also reveal the U.S. was listening in on conversations between South Korean officials over whether to help send Ukraine 330,000 rounds of ammunition, potentially in contradiction to South Korea’s stance against providing lethal weapons to nations at war.
The South Korea leak comes at a particularly bad time — weeks before President Yoon Suk Yeol travels to Washington for a state dinner in his honor. “To have it laid out in detail that we’re listening in on his national security aides is more than a little embarrassing,” David said.
A few details in the documents also seem to be false or doctored, such as overestimates of Ukrainian casualties in the war. It’s possible Russian officials or others altered the documents before posting, or reposting, them on social media platforms.
The consequences
Much of the leak’s repercussions will be felt in the short term. The U.S. may be forced to rework its spying operations. Ukraine is changing battle plans, and Russia could, too. Feeling burned from the leaks, some of America’s allies may be more guarded in sharing information.
Over the long term, the effects will diminish. Ukraine will still move forward with its planned counteroffensive. The U.S. and its allies will continue supporting Ukraine. And America’s allies will continue sharing information, even if they need assurances first or are more cautious about the potential for leaks.
In the past, U.S. officials have overstated the damage from leaks. After WikiLeaks published American diplomatic cables online in 2010, officials warned that the leaks could hurt national security and American diplomats’ ability to talk with allies. Similarly, officials claimed that Edward Snowden’s disclosures of National Security Agency documents in 2013 would permanently hinder America’s intelligence-gathering operations.
Those predictions were overblown. The latest leak, and the many specifics it has exposed, show that American officials and spies can still reach deep into the highest levels of other countries’ governments.
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