Subtropical Storm Nicole formed in the southwestern Atlantic on Monday, becoming the 14th named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.
The government of the Bahamas issued a tropical storm watch for the northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, according to an advisory from National Hurricane Center. Up to six inches of rain was expected across the region from Tuesday through Thursday.
Unlike tropical storms, subtropical storms do not have the potential to quickly grow into hurricanes, according to the National Weather Service, but they generate heavy thunderstorms and rain.
Nicole was forecast to approach the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday and move over those islands on Wednesday, meteorologists said. The storm will then head toward the east coast of Florida by Wednesday night.
The storm was packing winds at 45 miles per hour as of early Monday, and it was expected to strengthen over the next few days and possibly reach hurricane intensity by Wednesday.
Outside of the Bahamas, interests in Florida and along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the storm, meteorologists said and that additional weather watches may be added later on Monday.
A storm is given a name after it reaches wind speeds of at least 39 miles per hour.
The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June through the end of November, had a relatively quiet start, with only three named storms before Sept. 1 and none during August, the first time that has happened since 1997. Storm activity picked up in early September with Danielle and Earl, which formed within a day of each other. By the end of September, Hurricane Ian had slammed into the coast of Florida as a Category 4 hurricane, one of the most powerful storms to hit the United States in the past decade. Last week saw two storms become hurricanes: Lisa, which hit Belize as a hurricane, and Martin, which circulated over the North Central Atlantic but never came close to land.
In early August, scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued an updated forecast for the rest of the season, which still called for an above-normal level of activity. In it, they predicted the season — could see 14 to 20 named storms, with six to 10 turning into hurricanes that sustain winds of at least 74 m.p.h.
Last year, there were 21 named storms, after a record-breaking 30 in 2020. For the past two years, meteorologists have exhausted the list of names used to identify storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, an occurrence that has happened only one other time, in 2005.
The links between hurricanes and climate change have become clearer with each passing year. Data shows that hurricanes have become stronger worldwide during the past four decades. A warming planet can expect stronger hurricanes over time, and a higher incidence of the most powerful storms — though the overall number of storms could drop, because factors like stronger wind shear could keep weaker storms from forming.
Hurricanes are also becoming wetter because of more water vapor in the warmer atmosphere; scientists have suggested storms like Hurricane Harvey in 2017 produced far more rain than they would have without the human effects on climate. Also, rising sea levels are contributing to higher storm surge — the most destructive element of tropical cyclones.
