Oil prices continued to sink on Wednesday after China said it would match President Trump’s tariffs blow for blow. The U.S. price dropped as low as $55 a barrel before recovering somewhat.
The slide in crude prices signals deteriorating confidence in the strength of the economy. And while lower oil prices benefit consumers by, ultimately, reducing prices at the pump, they are a big problem for U.S. oil producers, many of which will struggle to make money drilling new wells at these levels.
For now, many companies are waiting to see whether prices remain between $50 and $60 before adjusting drilling or spending plans. That is because commodity prices can be very volatile. After all, oil fetched around $72 a barrel this time last week, before Mr. Trump ratcheted up tariffs on nearly all countries with which the United States trades goods.
But if prices fall further, to around $50 a barrel, U.S. oil production could decline by about 8 percent in a year, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Peter Navarro, a trade adviser to Mr. Trump, has frequently cited the benefits of $50 a barrel oil, saying it would curb inflation.
Earnings are likely to fall as well, the Moody’s ratings agency said Wednesday, forecasting that profits will shrink by 10 percent or more across the global energy industry over the next 12 to 18 months. Moody’s previously expected profits would be flat compared with 2024.
The recent price slide has spooked U.S. oil executives, many of whom backed Mr. Trump’s campaign in hopes that he would open new areas for drilling and make it easier to secure permits for pipelines and other infrastructure.
“That’s a pretty expensive trade-off,” Dan Pickering, chief investment officer for Pickering Energy Partners, a Houston financial services firm, said on Friday.
Commodity and company share prices have deteriorated further since then, leaving a broad group of U.S. oil and gas stocks down nearly 25 percent in the past week.
It has been more than four years since oil prices were this low. The decline has yet to make a dent in the cost of gasoline, which averaged $3.24 a gallon on Wednesday, the same as last week, according to the AAA motor club.
