China launched military exercises pressing in on Taiwan on Tuesday, in what Beijing said was a warning to the island-democracy’s president, Lai Ching-te, after he called China a “foreign hostile force.”
Chinese land, navy, air and missile forces would “approach close” to Taiwan and practice “seizure of overall control, strikes on sea and land targets, and the blockade and control of key areas and lanes” at sea, Senior Col. Shi Yi, a spokesman for the People’s Liberation Army command that oversees Taiwan, said in a statement issued on Chinese state-run media.
Sometimes, China’s military does not spell out why it holds drills. This time, officials and state media reports were clear: “This is firm punishment for the Lai Ching-te administration’s rampant ‘pro-independence’ provocations,” Zhu Fenglian, a spokeswoman for the Chinese government’s office on Taiwanese affairs, said in a statement.
Ms. Zhu singled out a speech by Mr. Lai on March 13 in which he described China as a “foreign hostile force” and laid out 17 measures that Mr. Lai said would combat deepening Chinese subversion and spying in Taiwan. Those included restoring military tribunals for cases against military personnel who spy, and strengthening oversight of cultural, political and religious exchanges with China. Beijing says that Taiwan is its territory, and that it will eventually absorb the island, by force if Chinese leaders deem that necessary.
But despite Beijing’s fiery language, it was unclear how long the exercises would last, or how close they would approach Taiwan. Military analysts said the exercises appeared intended to intimidate Taiwan, without tipping over into a wider confrontation or crisis. Mr. Lai and his Democratic Progressive Party deny that Taiwan is a part of China — a key premise of Beijing’s claim that the island is its territory — and officials in Beijing have already vehemently denounced Mr. Lai’s recent speech.
Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense said that by early Tuesday morning, 19 Chinese military vessels were operating around the main island of Taiwan, and China’s Shandong aircraft carrier had moved toward it. Taiwan’s premier, Cho Jung-tai, told journalists that the island’s forces were closely monitoring the Chinese military.
“This time, the political symbolism stands out more,” Su Tzu-yun, a researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, an organization in Taipei supported by Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, said of China’s latest exercises. “It’s trying to get in closer to Taiwan to exert more psychological pressure.”
While, publicly, China has linked the exercises to Mr. Lai’s comments, Mr. Su and other experts said, China’s leaders also appeared to be sending an implicit message to the Trump administration. Mr. Lai has sought to maintain U.S. support for Taiwan during President Trump’s term, including by promising to raise its military spending to more than 3 percent of the island’s economic output this year.
“The publicity around the exercise likely also has the U.S. in mind — they want to persuade the Trump administration that Lai is a troublemaker and to deter the U.S. from maintaining high levels of support to Taiwan,” said Amanda Hsiao, an analyst for the Eurasia Group who monitors Chinese foreign policy and China-Taiwan tensions.
The exercises came days after the U.S. defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, visited Tokyo to discuss strengthening military ties with Japan. Mr. Hegseth said there that the Trump administration would focus on countering Chinese power, including its efforts to squeeze Taiwan.
“America is committed to sustaining robust, ready and credible deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, including across the Taiwan Strait,” Mr. Hegseth said in a news conference with Japan’s defense minister, Gen Nakatani. Mr. Hegseth has also issued internal guidelines in the Pentagon that say U.S. forces must focus on deterring China from trying to seize Taiwan by force, the Washington Post reported.
Still, China may not have an appetite right now for extended military exercises that may deepen the divisions between the Trump administration and China’s leader, Xi Jinping. Mr. Xi is already squaring off with Mr. Trump over additional U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods that were imposed last month, with possibly more tariffs to come this week. The official Chinese statements about the latest exercises did not mention the United States.
“China is definitely interested in not showing weakness,” Wen-Ti Sung, a researcher in Taiwan and a nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, said of Mr. Xi’s approach to the Trump administration. “But China will respond with just enough firmness to make sure that an off ramp for it still remains.”
Taiwan’s share market indicated that for now the island’s investors were not too worried about China’s menacing military steps. Taipei’s stock exchange rose on Tuesday morning, after the People’s Liberation Army had announced the exercises.
