MLS’s 30th season kicks off Saturday a few miles away from where the league’s 29th campaign ended. The LA Galaxy won MLS Cup a shade over two months ago, but rival LAFC will lift the curtain on 2025 when they host Minnesota United Saturday afternoon.
It marks the start of a season that will feature plenty of new impact signings (the league’s outgoing transfer fee record was broken twice), a new club (welcome, San Diego FC!), some USMNT arrivals seeking a pathway to the top of Mauricio Pochettino’s depth chart (hello, Brandon Vázquez and Luca de la Torre) and a big, shiny spotlight on Lionel Messi and everything his Inter Miami does along the way (in frigid temperatures or otherwise).
A new season is an excuse to make our annual sure-to-be-right predictions, so we’ve polled The Athletic’s soccer writers Paul Tenorio, Pablo Maurer, Jeff Rueter and Felipe Cardenas for their insight on a number of topics. Who will win it all? Who will be terrible? Who will surprise? Who deserves your attention?
We’ve covered it all below to take you the rest of the way to first kick in L.A.
Join The Athletic’s MLS WhatsApp channel. All the latest MLS updates straight to your phone with exclusive content from our writers in the form of messages voice notes, videos and more. All our experts will bring you their views and observations as MLS embarks upon its biggest season yet.
Predictions: MLS Cup winner, Supporters’ Shield winner (best record), Wooden Spoon recipient (worst record)
Tenorio:
- MLS Cup – Inter Miami: Messi and Co. prioritize the CONCACAF Champions Cup and the playoffs, and win one of those two trophies.
- Supporters’ Shield – FC Cincinnati: Losing Lucho Acosta hurts, but adding Evander and Kévin Denkey should put an already strong team over the top this season.
- Wooden Spoon – Houston Dynamo: Toronto looks rough, and it seems like this is a tear-it-down year, but I really don’t like the sales the Dynamo made this offseason and the replacement value of the players coming back in. Houston will be in some trouble if they don’t add talent.
Cardenas:
- MLS Cup – Inter Miami: Messi doesn’t have to win an MLS Cup title. His legacy as (arguably) the best player ever is already cemented. But I find it hard to believe that he won’t win at least one while he’s playing in the United States
- Supporters’ Shield – FC Cincinnati: Miami will be better than they were during their record-breaking season in 2024. They could repeat as Supporters’ Shield champions. I think Cincinnati walks away with this one, though (in a tight race).
- Wooden Spoon – Nashville SC: Feels like Nashville are hovering slightly above irrelevancy in MLS. They don’t have stars, and you need those players in this league. B.J. Callaghan’s first full season will be a difficult one that will reset the club’s strategy.
There should be plenty for Lionel Messi and Luis Suárez to celebrate this season in MLS. (Manuel Velasquez/Getty Images)
Maurer:
- MLS Cup – Inter Miami: Ambition gets you a long way in MLS, and Miami, at this point, are overdue. If they stay healthy, Messi & Co. will finally lift their first meaningful trophy (with apologies to the Leagues Cup.)
- Supporters’ Shield – FC Cincinnati: Acosta’s shock transfer stole the headlines but, on balance, this team has only gotten better. Highly watchable, highly competitive, and this year, they’ll win the Shield.
- Wooden Spoon – San Diego FC: A couple of splashy signings, yes, but a whole mess of unanswered questions as well. MLS has had a couple of outliers but at the end of the day, life is tough as an expansion team. Feel free to tape this one up in the locker room, Mikey Varas. “They don’t believe in us” is an MLS tradition, at this point.
Rueter:
- MLS Cup – Seattle Sounders: MLS’s most complete squad is better built to compete on all fronts (well, besides the Club World Cup). They’ve cobbled together unparalleled depth and MLS nous among a roster of prime-aged players.
- Supporters’ Shield – FC Cincinnati: Expertly navigated what could’ve been a mission-critical Acosta subplot and got better along the way. It helps that they won’t need to worry about the Club World Cup, either.
- Wooden Spoon – Toronto FC: Lorenzo Insigne is already the worst signing in MLS history given his bloated wages and lack of impact, and I don’t see room for a belated bounce-back. A rudderless franchise that needs time to dig out from Bill Manning and John Herdman’s mistakes — but hiring Robin Fraser was a step in the right direction.
GO DEEPER
USL answers: Can new division rival MLS and will pro/rel work
Who will be the splashiest summer signing?
Tenorio: Antoine Griezmann to LAFC. This one has been rumored for some time and I don’t think LAFC is keeping a DP spot open for the sake of it.
Cardenas: I agree with Paul. Griezmann to MLS is inevitable. He’s an avid NFL fan (with a Spanish-language NFL podcast) who recently made his way to the Super Bowl in New Orleans. He seems to be looking forward to life in the U.S., specifically in L.A. As for Kevin De Bruyne, you ask? The Belgian seems destined for Saudi Arabia.
Might Antoine Griezmann make his way to MLS this summer? (Florencia Tan Jun/Getty Images)
Maurer: Gio Reyna to… anywhere other than the Chicago Fire. This one may feel far-fetched, but Reyna simply needs minutes. Dortmund’s asking price has likely decreased significantly over the last year, bringing him into range for an MLS side. Whether Reyna would want to come back to the States is an entirely different story. Few would blame him.
Rueter: If Norwich City fails to earn promotion, Josh Sargent could be available for a fee similar to what Atlanta paid Middlesbrough for Emmanuel Latte Lath (more than $20million). St. Louis City expressed interest and playing through the summer (should he stay healthy) could bolster his case for the 2026 World Cup.
GO DEEPER
Promising Champions League for USMNT stars turns dire in a flash
Boldest Messi take for the season
Rueter: Messi helps Miami reach the conference final, where an extra-time defeat causes Miami to offer an even more lucrative package that ultimately brings him back for one more year.
Maurer: Messi will do the double, winning the league’s MVP and also its Golden Boot. Not that the famously competitive Argentine needs any added motivation, but his ownership stake in Miami — and the fact that this could be his final year playing in the league — may just give him the added nudge he needs. Scorching take, I know.
Cardenas: Messi’s numbers in 2025 won’t be spectacular. He’ll slow down a bit and Miami will monitor his fitness carefully going into the Club World Cup. He’ll still have an MVP-caliber season, but he won’t repeat as the winner of the award.
Tenorio: I could see a scenario in which Messi announces a six-month contract extension that lets him open the new stadium, takes him through the end of the 2026 World Cup … and that’s it.
GO DEEPER
The USMNT wild card with a penchant for the unpredictable
Biggest surprise team (for better or worse)
Maurer: The San Jose Earthquakes, 2024 Wooden Spoon winners, will make the postseason in 2025. Never underestimate the power of American men’s soccer’s greatest coach fighting for his legacy (adding Chicho Arango doesn’t hurt, either). The Quakes won’t set the league on fire, but they’ll do enough to make the playoffs.
Tenorio: I second Pablo’s prediction. Never bet against Bruce Arena. I learned that lesson when he went to New England.
Luciano Acosta has taken his goals and assists to Dallas for 2025 (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Rueter: With Eric Quill on the touchline and Acosta pulling the strings, FC Dallas leap to fifth in the Western Conference in their most entertaining season since the heyday of Mauro Díaz and Fabián Castillo.
Cardenas: In Wilfried Nancy’s final season in MLS, the Columbus Crew will miss the playoffs. Cucho Hernández’s absence will regress the Crew’s attack, and by the summer, Nancy will move abroad to start the next chapter of his coaching career.
GO DEEPER
Out in the cold, Greenland eyes Concacaf for sporting legitimacy
Over/Under: 0.5 MLS clubs getting out of the Club World Cup group stage
(Inter Miami are in a group with Porto, Palmeiras and Al Ahly; the Seattle Sounders are grouped with Paris Saint-Germain, Atlético Madrid and Botafogo)
Rueter: Under, but I’m sure both clubs will appreciate the extra allocation money for their attempts.
Maurer: Under. MLS has always craved the opportunity to prove itself a “league of choice,” but it still has a long way to go. It’ll be fun to watch either way.
Tenorio: Yeah, I’m going to take the under on this one, too.
Cardenas: Miami might scrape through, but if the Sounders make it out of Group B, well, the U.S. might win the 2026 World Cup. And we know that’s not happening. Under.
(Top photo: Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
