Manchester City attempted 683 passes in their 1-1 draw with Everton, but it was one that Nathan Ake refused that revealed the tensions that are gnawing at them.
It came just as another flurry from Pep Guardiola’s side was beginning to settle down. A familiar sense of exasperation was already brewing in the stands — fans reflecting on Iliman Ndiaye’s sensational equaliser, that came from Everton’s first touch in the City box — but after a strong start to the second half, including a rare Erling Haaland penalty miss, adrenaline and indignation was beginning to take hold.
There was a roar as City regained possession deep in their own half, fans urging the team on as Ake ambled forward while Josko Gvardiol careered down the left flank. But as the Dutchman turned back to find Bernardo Silva in midfield, to a collective groan from home fans, Guardiola burst to the edge of his technical area and appealed for calm.
Everton scrambled back into their shape — Guardiola still pleading with his supporters — as a slower attacking move through the middle eventually fizzled out down the opposite side
It could have become the kind of sweeping move that City have struggled to contain throughout their growing winless run — no team have conceded more than their 5.3 expected goals (xG) from fast breaks in the Premier League this season — but it only underlined their aversion to exploiting such situations themselves.
Gvardiol had rushed past Jack Harrison, and clearly had the forward momentum to skip by 36-year-old Seamus Coleman at full-back, but on this occasion, Guardiola’s insistence on controlled build-up prevailed over common sense. City had sufficient numbers back to deal with any loss of possession and a counter-attack the opposite way, and given their current issues controlling such situations even when they are in their desired defensive shape, surely they should have just taken the chance.
It was, of course, just one individual decision in a game of millions. But as City once again looked more threatening when they picked up the pace and were more aggressive in their movement, it poses the question as to whether Guardiola’s side should embrace the disorganisation of a direct forward run that little bit more.
Despite long periods of safe attacking play, City were not completely risk-averse in their approach. Particularly in the opening 15 minutes, they seemed desperate to score the first goal, aware that their opponents had ground out consecutive clean sheets against Arsenal and Chelsea, and were capable of turning this into a 90-minute slog.
City usually bring one of their full-backs into midfield to help with their build-up, but it was noticeable how they pushed both Rico Lewis and Gvardiol high and wide as they came flying out of the blocks, looking to overload Everton’s back four and stretch them across the pitch.
As we can see from the grab below, with Lewis cut from the shot in the bottom right, the approach was practically a 3-0-7 as City piled on the pressure in the early stages.
After Silva nicked the opening goal, however, Lewis was quickly restored to his more central role to offer more control in the build-up and make City more compact should they lose the ball.
Here he is three minutes after the goal, close to Mateo Kovacic in midfield.
It was a conscious decision by Guardiola to take the sting out of the game and revert to a more settled shape, and he may have been vindicated had Ndiaye not produced a moment of brilliance on the break. But with City so susceptible to sucker punches right now, it felt a missed opportunity to see them take their foot off the gas so soon.
One of the side effects of Lewis dropping back into midfield is that his winger — Savinho yesterday — loses support out on the flank. The Brazilian took 15 touches in the quarter of an hour leading up to City’s goal, but only 16 throughout the rest of the half.
Data from SkillCorner helps to paint the picture further: City are the team in Europe’s big five leagues who make fewest overlapping runs per 30 minutes in possession. They have also attempted the fewest passes to find a runner in-behind relative to their possession, taking up around 46 per cent of their opportunities to find those runs when they are made. Unsurprisingly, that’s the lowest such proportion in the Premier League this season.
There are several factors that influence those numbers — the fact that City tend to face teams who sit deep and deny them space in behind being one — but the lack of movement from forward players while the team inches forward has become increasingly apparent in recent weeks. It makes things predictable, as it did for Aston Villa, and only increases the difficulty of finding players in congested central areas, mostly static and with their back to goal.
There was an encouraging example of a positional rotation in their 3-0 win over Nottingham Forest at the start of the month, as Jack Grealish dragged a defender into midfield to allow Gvardiol to steam through for a shot on goal, but City seem reluctant to make such disruptive strides forward as often as they could.
A gloomy way of looking at things is that dropped points don’t matter so much now that City are so far away from the summit. The damage — from a title-chasing perspective, if not perhaps Champions League qualification — has already been done.
But starting a run of three winnable games with another setback feels like a missed opportunity for the team to rebuild confidence in front of goal. Had City been more ruthless in their approach, and gone for the kind of passes that Ake turned down, their firepower might have overridden some of the bad luck.
(Top photo: Carl Recine/Getty Images)
