Many of the largest technology companies weren’t prepared for the opposition to data centers that has swept the country over the last year. To placate critics, the companies walked back secrecy arrangements, offered greater benefits to local communities and said they would pay more for electricity.
It didn’t matter. Even elected officials who had once welcomed the giant data centers, which tech companies are building for their artificial intelligence work, were turning against them. The election swung harder against data centers than polls predicted. In 40 out of 41 local ballot initiatives across the country, citizens voted to limit or prevent data center development.
Still there are early signs that the Blue Wave that brought Democrats to power around the country will not send data center construction — and with it the U.S. economy — off a cliff.
One analysis, from the investment bank Bernstein, estimated that in the most extreme scenario, 9 percent of projects that would have probably been built will no longer break ground. More realistically, they said, only 2 to 4 percent of future data centers will be canceled nationwide.
Another analysis, from Susquehanna Financial Group, predicted that even if some projects die, more data centers for training A.I. will still be built in 2027 and 2028 than this year.
“We are not going to see a dramatic downturn,” said Austin Keyser, a top regional official at the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers who advised Amy Acton, Ohio’s Democratic governor-elect. She campaigned on establishing moratoriums on data center projects that don’t meet certain criteria, such as hiring union workers and building on former industrial sites, not farmland.
The Data Center Coalition, the leading industry trade group whose members include Amazon, Google and Microsoft, did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
The election results showed a lack of trust between the tech industry and local communities that will lead to a reset of how technology companies approach data center projects.
“I think we will look back at it for a positive thing in terms of setting more clear regulations and hopefully that will help communities feel we are not just in the Wild West here,” said Brian Janous, a former Microsoft executive who co-founded Cloverleaf Infrastructure, which puts together land and power deals for data center developers that work with OpenAI, Meta and others.
A large number of projects have permits and are under construction or will be soon, and elected officials haven’t generally proposed rescinding existing permits. Already there are more projects than the industry can realistically build. Shortages in labor, equipment and even power have already led to delays. Even before the election, the industry expected many announced deals to never pan out in the first place.
New rules could slow down projects, and force companies to pay more. But many of the biggest tech companies have already begun making the kinds of changes that people want. “Money is not their problem,” Mr. Keyser said. “If there is an impediment to them getting to market fast, they will pay their way through that.”
A gentle slowdown would be welcomed by some investors, who have become increasingly anxious as tech companies burn through cash to fuel their A.I. ambitions. Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta are on track to spend more than $720 billion this year on data centers and other capital expenses — roughly triple what they spent just two years ago.
Analysts and industry participants expect the largest, most established players have the resources and relationships to navigate the changes to come out ahead. Some have already been preparing for major changes and have been looking for ways to keep the boom alive.
Microsoft, for example, this summer ran polls in nine states where it has current or future operations, according to a person familiar with the company’s efforts. It found that while nothing would satisfy roughly 15 percent of people who oppose data centers, roughly 70 percent said could accept the buildings with protections, like generating tax revenue and limiting water use.
After realizing that it could not resolve opposition at the local level alone, Microsoft began drafting model legislation that it would bring to statehouses hungry to pass bills, the person said.
The smattering of issues that could be addressed with more Democrats in charge include rolling back tax breaks, requiring union labor, making data centers pay more for power, and being more transparent.
“The devil really is in the details on how do you a protect a community,” said Mandy DeRoche, who heads data center work at Earthjustice, an environmental nonprofit that has sued over certain projects. She said did not expect data center construction to come to a halt, but hoped that taking the edge off the frenzy could lead to better long-term thinking. Her group is particularly concerned about the growing reliance on natural gas to power A.I. data centers.
While the analysis from Susquehanna predicted that big tech companies can deal with the changes at the state and local level, smaller data center builders may not be so lucky.
These newer companies, called neoclouds, have taken on more debt than the industry giants, and could be more vulnerable to a pullback. Even before the election, many in the industry had expected neoclouds to consolidate. Gartner, a technology research firm, recently predicted that 80 percent of neoclouds will not be financially independent by 2030.
Some neoclouds have had to pay dearly to borrow enough money, and not all have been able to consistently deliver. Extra delays or costs could be harder to bear. “It will further separate the wheat from the chaff,” Mr. Janous said.
CoreWeave, a bellwether neocloud, had been punished by investors this year and forced to pay more to borrow. Its shares sank further right after the election. But on Tuesday it reported better than expected results in the quarter that ended Sept. 30.
Michael Intrator, CoreWeave’s chief executive, told investors it had strong demand for at least two years. And he made the case that the prices it can command may stay higher for longer because “if data center construction across the sector were to slow, installed compute becomes scarcer.” CoreWeave’s shares surged on Wednesday.
Still, there are many open questions, especially in Texas, where more data centers are planned than anywhere else in the country. Bernstein estimated that data center construction accounts for 28 percent of the state’s gross domestic product.
New permits in Texas were temporarily paused before the election pending an audit. But the campaign by Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic governor-elect, centered on establishing a moratorium on new data centers until the legislature passed protection on issues including reducing subsidies, using union labor, and banning nondisclosure agreements.
She told The New York Times in an interview that she did not think she could halt all the projects under construction, but that if they still needed approvals, she would “make sure those permits are held until we can protect Texans.” She said she was still pro-business — if the businesses were pro-Texas.
What exactly that means is not clear. Tech companies and developers are scrutinizing the status of their projects and wondering if they have all the permits they need or whether they could be caught up in the moratorium.
Constituents will be watching as new lawmakers juggle the risks of pulling the plug on economically important projects with what they promised on the campaign trail.
“That is why people voted,” Ms. DeRoche said.
