I sometimes feel like I’m making Oscar predictions from a defensive crouch, already anticipating what the academy might get wrong. Still, hope springs eternal.
Over the last few years, the academy has diversified itself and added more young and international members, so the group’s sensibilities are bound to shift, too. When the nominations are announced on Jan. 17, is there a chance that everything could suddenly go right, and voters could shock us not with what gets snubbed but with what they were cool enough to make room for?
If so, maybe we’ll be fortunate enough to see some of the following names called next week.
Coralie Fargeat, best director
Gory horror comedies don’t tend to sail through awards season, but “The Substance” has had a charmed run thus far, culminating in Demi Moore’s triumphant Golden Globe win on Sunday. The 62-year-old actress now seems like a sure bet for an Oscar nomination, but can that good will extend to Fargeat, the film’s envelope-pushing French director? The academy’s directing branch tends to lean toward more highbrow picks, but there’s no disputing Fargeat’s vision and panache. In a year when Hollywood produced few female contenders for this category, seeing her included would be a welcome jolt.
‘Challengers,’ best original score
Could the most exciting film music of the year be dealt a savage snub? Though the propulsive techno score earned Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross a Golden Globe, I fear that the Oscars may overlook it: Last week, when members of the British film academy winnowed the BAFTA original-score contenders to 10, “Challengers” failed to make the lineup. Since that awards body has a significant member overlap with the American academy, this may be an early warning sign that the “Challengers” score is simply too cutting-edge for more traditionally minded voters. Let’s hope stateside Oscar voters prove more amenable than their British counterparts, since it’s impossible to imagine Luca Guadagnino’s tennis-themed love triangle (or any of my gym playlists) without those driving club synths.
‘Union,’ ‘No Other Land’ and ‘The Bibi Files,’ best documentary feature
Of the 15 films that made this year’s Oscar shortlist for best documentary feature, three have tackled such controversial topics that no U.S. distributor was willing to pick them up: “Union,” about the push to unionize an Amazon warehouse in Staten Island, “No Other Land,” which chronicles the razing of a West Bank village by the Israeli authorities, and “The Bibi Files,” about the corruption case against Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister. The corporations that own many studios have only grown more hesitant to pick up political hot potatoes, but Oscar attention for these worthy contenders would at least be a boon to their self-distribution plans, and a rebuke to the wealthy movers and shakers who are too afraid to back controversial art.
Michele Austin, best supporting actress
The three most notable critics groups have thrown their weight behind the “Hard Truths” star Marianne Jean-Baptiste, with the British actress’s tetchy performance taking top honors from the New York Film Critics Circle, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, and the National Society of Film Critics. But I was particularly pleased to see that the last group also gave its supporting trophy to Michele Austin, who plays Jean-Baptiste’s patient sister: She’s the joyful counterweight to Jean-Baptiste’s dyspeptic Pansy and plenty deserving of awards attention, too.
‘A Different Man,’ best original screenplay
A24 is fielding plenty of major awards contenders this season, including “The Brutalist,” which just took the Golden Globes for best drama, director and actor in a drama, and “Sing Sing,” which could score Oscar nominations for best picture and its stars, Colman Domingo and Clarence Maclin. Still, it’s the studio’s lesser-known “A Different Man” that keeps surprising: An unusual dramedy about an actor (Sebastian Stan) who struggles with his facial disfigurement, it took top honors at the Gotham Awards and the Golden Globe for best actor in a comedy or musical. That’s the kind of momentum that could coax Oscar voters to watch “A Different Man” at the last minute, and I think the writing branch in particular could warm to its script, which never goes quite where you expect.
Javier Bardem, best supporting actor
No cast member from “Dune: Part Two” has been regarded as a serious awards contender, perhaps because the real star of the movie feels like the director, Denis Villeneuve. Still, I haven’t seen a performance this season that delighted me more than Bardem’s: As the initially skeptical Stilgar, who becomes besotted with the budding leader Paul Atreides (Timothée Chalamet), Bardem puts the fun in religious fundamentalism. Like Guy Pearce in “The Brutalist,” he locates a sense of humor in material that could otherwise be played too seriously, and his wide-eyed exclamation that Paul is the prophesied “Lisan al Gaib!” may be the line reading of the year. No one is expecting Bardem to make the Oscar lineup, but come on: In a supporting-actor race that seems destined to be won by Kieran Culkin, why not add a little spice?
