“I really am surprised,” said Tom Kloza, the global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service. Mr. Kloza said he expected that the Brent global oil price benchmark, which has been hovering at $75 to $80 a barrel in recent weeks, would climb above $80. On Sunday evening, the price of Brent crude surged to $85.48 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the American benchmark, rose to $81.04.
Various energy experts estimated the eventual cut differently. Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said that the voluntary cuts on paper amounted to more than 1.6 million barrels a day but, she added, the “real effect could be around 700,000 barrels a day.”
The global oil market is roughly 102 million barrels a day.
In recent years, Saudi Arabia, the leader of the group, has appeared determined to lift prices to around $90 a barrel. Ms. Croft said she saw the latest OPEC Plus cut as “just one more indication that the Saudi leadership is moving its oil production decisions with a clear eye to their own economic self-interests.” Other experts saw it as another sign of growing Saudi independence from the United States, with its relationship to China increasing in importance. It is already a vital partner of Russia’s in directing oil supply levels.
The cuts, which are voluntary and start in May, could be temporary depending on economic conditions.
Just last week, Saudi Aramco, the Saudi state oil company, announced two deals with China to supply refineries there with 690,000 barrels a day. Demand for oil continues to rebound from the global slowdown amid the Covid-19 pandemic. World diesel demand has nearly recovered to its levels before the pandemic, and jet fuel demand continues to surge as China emerges from its Covid shutdown.
The cuts come as gasoline prices, still well below where they were a year ago, are rising again. The average price for regular gasoline in the United States on Sunday was $3.51 a gallon, 13 cents above a month ago. The price a year ago was $4.20 a gallon, and was a major factor in the rise of inflation.
The cartel agreed in October to output cuts of two million barrels a day, but the ultimate reduction was well below that as producing countries like Libya and Nigeria agreed to cut to levels that they could not reach anyway.
The group had last slashed production in 2020, when demand collapsed because of the pandemic. It then gradually increased production until October.
Zolan Kanno-Youngs contributed reporting.
