Now that the arguments are complete, the justices will cast tentative votes at a private conference in the coming days. The senior justice in the majority will then assign the majority opinion to a colleague or, just as likely, keep it. Draft opinions, almost certainly including concurrences and dissents, will be prepared and exchanged.
On average, it takes the Supreme Court about three months after an argument to issue a decision. But rulings in a term’s biggest cases — and this one certainly qualifies — tend not to arrive until June, no matter how early in the term they were argued.
The court heard arguments in the Masterpiece Cakeshop case, involving a Colorado baker who turned away a gay couple seeking a wedding cake, exactly five years ago, on Dec. 5, 2017. The decision arrived on June 4, 2018.
Scholars have given varied explanations for why the biggest cases tend to land in June, no matter when they were argued. One is that justices keep polishing the opinions that will define their legacies until the last possible moment.
A 2015 study in The Duke Law Journal suggested a more personal reason: “The justices, most of whom have busy social schedules in Washington, may want to avoid tensions at their social functions by clustering the most controversial cases in the last week or two of the term — that is, just before they leave Washington for their summer recess.”
