Elon Musk's 'peace' plan for Ukraine conflict and the end game for the US and its allies, according to Thareendra Kalpage

Written by Thareendra Kalpage:

On Monday, one of my Business Heroes, Elon Musk held a poll on Twitter offering four potential solutions to the Ukraine conflict.

I think Elon’s initiative good idea despite it’s been Unsolicited because the United States and her western allies don’t know for sure if the Russian president is just bluffing with his nuclear treats or not. Things appear to be getting worse in Ukraine. It’s undeniable that nuclear threats and calls for mobilization have been made. It makes you question the state of contemporary diplomacy.

Underestimating Mr. Putin is too dangerous, and the consequences could be felt across the globe, not just in the United States. The direction Elon Musk is heading in is admirable to me for this reason.

So here are Elon’s Proposals

1^st Proposal

Rather than relying on the results of the fraudulent elections that Russia just held in four regions of Ukraine, Elon’s plan calls for a new round of

elections to be monitored by the United Nations. And Voted in favor of, Russians troops to leave .

2^nd Proposal

Ukraine to accept the Russia’s official claim Crimea as part of its territory.

3^rd Proposal

Ukraine to restore the Crimean Peninsula’s water supply.

4^th Proposal

Ukraine to maintain its neutrality and will not seek membership in NAITO.

Here’s where I think Elon is absolutely correct. Truth is truth, regardless of whether we like it or not, and it appears that Elon recognizes this. There are only two ways for this war to end: with Russia victorious or with Ukraine making concessions. Thus, it should come as no surprise. It’s optimistic to think that Kiev can take on and defeat a nuclear power. Indeed, this is the common consensus among experts in the field. So, yes, Elon is right about that. There seems to be no reason to risk the lives of thousands of soldiers to put off something that is inevitable.

Here is where my hero Elon and I differ: Here is a tweet from Elon to refresh your memory.

Focus on the most important factor. If its citizens so demand, Russia will withdraw. Musk desires the removal of Russian troops from occupied territories if the locals so desire. Mr. Vladimir Putin would not have invaded in the first place if he were concerned about the United Nations Charter or any other law. Russia will never accept a vote overseen by the UN. Regardless of the outcome, they will not leave. I do not fully comprehend Elon’s plans

for global peace for this very reason. The United Nations will require everyone’s assistance in this endeavor, and everyone will need to collaborate. Plus, let’s be honest: such a high level of coordination, dedication, and honesty is improbable, and there never would have been a war if things were that easy.

While Elon’s plan has some sound logic, there is another issue aside from the one I mentioned earlier. Perception. What is the reasoning behind this? Because this is exactly what Russia desires in general: Crimea, neutrality, and Donbas. So, Elon’s proposal grants Russia the majority of its wishes, which may not be popular, despite the fact that it has the potential to prevent the next world war.

So, Elon’s Plan has Practical aspects and as well as Impractical aspects but his core objective remains very solid. We cannot afford another World war not with the destructive technology we have.

So, what is the best strategy for the United States and its allies to achieve the most favorable outcome for their camp? Here’s my two cents if I worked at the US State Department. Consider the situation from the perspective of US State Department officers; they must be asking themselves, “What’s in it for us?” and “Why should we risk our security for the

Donbas region?” The stakes aren’t high for us, and we may be sleepwalking into a global conflict by escalating a regional one. We can compare the current situation in the Donbas region to that of Archduke Franz Ferdinand (Recommend to read the book The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914 is historian Christopher Clark’s riveting account of the explosive beginnings of World War I.) . There is no historical significance for us, and it can trigger a world war. So, there is absolutely no need to military involvements in ground level.
• The most effective strategy would be for the United States to demonstrate that Vladimir Putin is no longer as powerful as he once was and exhaust his resources, so finally that would create a path to get him out of office or a regime change out of extortion of resources.
• Be aware that Mr. Putin is most likely not buffing, and here’s why. None of us would assume, based on our strategy in a card game, that we know what cards our opponent has. We accomplish this by assigning a probability range to each possible card combination held by our opponent. We then examine his past behavior to predict the likely outcome of his future actions or his story. So, what is the story that Putin’s past actions are now telling us… We must play it smart because he is clearly not bluffing.

So, strategize while recognizing that there is a chance that Mr. Putin will blow up the tactical nuke, and it is not zero. If his life were in danger, he would certainly consider the option. However, in the current situation, his life is not in danger, but any unfavorable outcome from this war could lead to that, and Mr. Putin is aware of this.

Here are the key components of my wait and see strategy.

• Postpone Ukraine’s accession to NATO for the time being and let the preceding strategy play out. At the moment, the rate of problems created by such onboarding is higher than the rate of problems solved.

• Refusing to recognize Russia’s official claim to Crimea as part of its territory. Better and broader alternatives emerge as time passes. For the time being, restore the Crimean Peninsula’s water supply.

• Define the goal, whether it is to help bring this conflict to an end through a settlement that allows for a sovereign Ukraine and some kind of relationship between the US and Russia. Is the US now attempting to permanently weaken Russia? Has the administration’s goal shifted to destabilizing or removing Vladimir Putin?

My perception What happened in the Middle East showed that regime change can have unanticipated consequences, so I would prefer to have a less powerful Vladimir Putin in power who cannot challenge US.

About The Writer:
Mr. Kalpage is a highly regarded entrepreneur, startup investor, business leader, contributor to numerous print and digital media news channels, and avid observer of the global political landscape, economy, and technological and social developments.